From Dr. Media, here is a review the the new media universe as projected by the folks at Price-Waterhouse. I will make these various projections about the future of media available as I come across them, AND think they are worthwile.
This one is interesting since it postulates about the global market for media, this is quite a challenge since China 1.2 billion people, and India, 1 billion souls, are coming on line as we speak and they LOVE American entertainement.
I guess this may explain why Rupert Murdoch got an apartment in Beijing, don’t think it was the weather.

The Doctor

Filmed Entertainment

The filmed entertainment market consists of consumer spending at the box office for theatrical motion pictures, plus spending on rental and purchase of home video products in both VHS and DVD formats. It also includes online film rental subscription services, such as those in which DVDs are delivered via overnight mail or films are downloaded via a broadband Internet connection. However, the figures do not include music videos, which are counted in the Recorded Music chapter. Neither do they include video-on-demand, pay-per-view, or movie distribution by cable, satellite, or telephone companies, all of which are covered in the TV Distribution chapter.

A sampling of global facts and forecasts:

* “In the U.S. online rental subscription services will represent a major channel for rentals, rising to $3.2 billion in 2009-half the traditional rental market.”
* “Filmed entertainment spending in EMEA will generate $41.3 billion in 2009, averaging 8.5 percent growth compounded annually.”
* “Japan is the dominant market in Asia/Pac, at $8.3 billion, 54 percent of total spending. Japan is particularly dominant in home video, constituting 63 percent of the region’s spending. Rentals remain popular in Japan because limited storage space in homes dampens demand to build video libraries. DVD recorders are selling well in Japan, and piracy is not a serious problem.”
* “In Latin America a rapidly growing DVD household base will stimulate home video, but piracy will limit growth.”
* “In Canada, in-store rental spending will increase at a 0.7 percent annual rate, while online rental subscriptions will rise to $263 million, a 120.9 percent increase compounded annually.”

Television Networks: Broadcast and Cable

The television network market consists of advertiser spending on broadcast and cable networks plus other sources of revenue that vary by region. In North America, the television network market comprises license fees paid by cable systems and satellite providers to basic and premium cable networks. In Europe, Middle East, Africa (EMEA), and Asia/ Pacific, it includes public TV license fees. Net advertising figures—made up of spending minus agency commissions and discounts—are tracked in EMEA, Asia/Pacific, Latin America, and Canada. Advertising in the United States is customarily reported with agency commissions included. The television distribution market is covered in a separate chapter. Multichannel advertising refers to advertising on networks that are accessed by viewers via cable (analog or digital), satellite, digital terrestrial television (DTT), or other means but that are not available in isolation from those services. Terrestrial advertising consists of advertising generated by free-to-air broadcast networks, even if viewers may receive such networks through a cable, satellite service, or DTT service.

A sampling of global facts and forecasts:

* “In the U.S. digital video recorders are gaining popularity, but they will not materially cut into television advertising.”
* “The United Kingdom became the largest market in EMEA (Europe Middle East, Africa), at $10.18 billion in 2004, barely edging out Germany, at $10.17 billion. Germany had been the region leader, but 6.2 percent growth for the United Kingdom in 2004, helped by a 5.3 percent increase in public TV license fees, enabled it to pass Germany, which itself turned around following two years of decline but which recorded only a 1.3 percent advance in 2004. Germany remained the region leader in public TV license fees, but it ranked third in television advertising, behind the U.K. and Italy.”
* “During the past three years, the People’s Republic of China has been Asia/Pac’s fastest-growing national market. It expanded by 37.8 percent in 2004, and we expect it will continue to be the fastest-growing country during the next five years, averaging 17.7 percent growth compounded annually.”
* “In Latin America the TV ad market is in full recovery, posting a 13.1 percent increase in 2004, the second consecutive healthy gain.”
* “In Canada the maturation of the market is likely to drive consolidation among broadcasters. The majority of the major players have announced that they are actively seeking acquisitions.”

Television Distribution: Station, Cable, and Satellite

The television distribution market consists of revenues generated by distributors of television programming to viewers. It includes spending by consumers on basic and premium subscriptions to terrestrial and satellite providers. In the United States, EMEA (Europe, Middle East, Africa), and Canada, it includes pay-per-view and video-on-demand. In the United States, advertising on local TV stations and local cable systems is also included.

A sampling of global facts and forecasts:

* “In the U.S. aggressive rollouts by telephone companies will attract subscribers from cable operators and create increased price competition. Attractive price points will lead to continued direct broadcast satellite (DBS) gains.”
* “The TV distribution market in Europe, Middle East, Africa (EMEA) will continue to grow at double-digit rates through 2007 and then will drop to high-single-digit increases, averaging 10.5 percent compounded annually for 2005–09 as a whole. The market will total $57.7 billion in 2009 from $35 billion in 2004.”
* “New digital launches will drive multichannel penetration and fuel spending, making Asia/Pacific the fastest-growing region in the world.”
* “In Latin America, we project the market to build on its 2004 recovery and accelerate during the next five years, with a 9.8 percent compound annual advance.”
* “In Canada, VOD will be the fastest-growing category, with a 41.5 percent compound annual increase from a small base. VOD will total $153 million in 2009.”

Recorded Music

The recorded music market consists of consumer spending on album and single sound recordings distributed on traditional formats including compact discs, cassette tapes, and vinyl, as well as music videos/DVDs. It also includes licensed digital distribution services and mobile music. Mobile music is music distributed to mobile phones and consists of ring tones, which are monophonic or polyphonic tones that play when the phone rings; ring backs, which are ring tones that the caller hears; master ring tones that are the actual music track; and music videos.

* “In 2004, the U.S. recorded music market posted its first advance in five years. The market will continue to expand as licensed digital distribution and mobile music fuel growth. Spending will rise to from $12.8 billion in 2004 to $18.8 billion in 2009, an 8.0 percent compound annual increase.”
* “In EMEA mobile music accounted for 10 percent of the market in 2004 and will constitute nearly a third of total spending on recorded music in 2009. Mobile music spending will be approximately $6.4 billion in 2009, a 33.9 percent compound annual increase.”
* “In Asia/Pac mobile music stabilized total spending in 2003 and propelled the market to a 9.3 percent increase in 2004. On the strength of continued growth in that sector, overall spending will advance at a 10.6 percent compound annual rate to $14.7 billion in 2009.”
* “In Latin America mobile music will grow rapidly and pass the physical distribution market in 2009. Spending will total $925 million in 2009, up from $126 million in 2004, a 49 percent compound annual increase.”
* “In Canada digital distribution will total $256 million in 2009, increasing at a 51.6 percent compound annual rate from 2004.”

Radio and Out-of-Home Advertising

The radio and out-of-home advertising market consists of advertiser spending on radio stations and radio networks plus out-of-home media such as billboards, street furniture, transit displays, and sports arena displays. In the United States, the radio market also includes satellite radio subscription revenues. In EMEA (Europe, Middle East, Africa) and Asia/Pacific it includes public radio license fees. Advertising spending-net of agency commissions-is tracked in EMEA, Asia/Pacific, Latin America, and Canada. Advertising in the United States is customarily reported as gross spending, so we have tracked gross figures in our U.S. coverage.

A sampling of global facts and forecasts:

* “In the U.S. inventory cutbacks and the advent of digital technology will attract listeners, which in turn will attract advertisers and bolster radio ad rates. However, political advertising that traditionally went to radio is migrating to local cable and out-of-home.”
* “In EMEA public radio license fees, which constituted 40 percent of spending in 2004, will be the slowest growing, increasing at a 1.3 percent compound annual rate to $9.6 billion in 2009.”
* “In Asia/Pac we project the radio and out-of home market will increase from $10.5 billion in 2004 to $12.6 billion in 2009, growing at a 3.8 percent compound annual rate.”
* “In Latin America out-of-home advertising will expand at an 8.0 percent compound annual rate, rising from $167 million in 2004 to $245 million by 2009.”
* “In Canada new billboard technologies will enhance out-of-home effectiveness and attract advertisers to the medium.”

Internet Advertising and Access Spending

The Internet advertising and access spending market consists of fees paid by consumers to Internet service providers (ISPs) and spending by online advertisers on display, classified, and paid-search advertising. It also includes classified advertising generated by newspaper Web sites, which is not included in the Newspaper Publishing chapter advertising totals.

A sampling of global facts and forecasts:

* “In the U.S. broadband competition will shift from price cuts to speed enhancements, limiting price incentives and boosting spending.”
* “In the EMEA region growth will be fastest in Central and Eastern Europe, at 13.5 percent compounded annually, with spending rising to $8.8 billion from $4.7 billion in 2004. Middle East/Africa will expand from $1.3 billion in 2004 to $2.3 billion in 2009 at a 12 percent rate compounded annually.”
* “In Asia/Pac the People’s Republic of China (PRC) accounted for nearly half the region’s spending in 2004 and will constitute 77 percent of the projected growth. Spending will total $90.7 billion in 2009, making the PRC the largest market in the world.”
* “In Latin America an emerging broadband market will stimulate access spending, but dial-up will remain the dominant platform during the next five years.”
* “In Canada the dial-up market will fall from $389 million to $147 million over the next five years, a 17.7 percent compound annual decline.”

Business Information

The business information market is composed of financial, marketing, and industry information accumulated and distributed primarily for business and/or professional audiences. The information is generally not available through traditional media such as television, professional books, magazines, or newspapers. The market encompasses the direct purchase of information by businesses, not including information in advertising-supported media such as business magazines and the Internet or information on business TV channels. The data in this chapter also excludes (1) information supplied free of charge, because it does not produce a spending stream, and (2) information purchased by consumers. Access to online business information is sold through subscriptions or electronic site licenses, while print formats are generally sold on a price-per-unit basis, although they are also available on a subscription basis.

Financial information comprises securities, economic, and credit data. Marketing information is used to sell products or services and to monitor sales. It includes survey research, mailing lists, and demographic databases. Industry information includes data and content focused on specific industry categories, such as technology, telecommunications, energy, manufacturing, law, real estate, accounting, and health care. In addition to supplying content, business information companies often provide software applications and technology solutions to create added value for their customers. However, such applications and solutions are not included in this chapter; only the purchase of information is included.

Business information is an industry increasingly characterized by multinational suppliers selling to multinational buyers. It is a global market, and the issues that affect the market apply to each region. In this chapter, forecasts are discussed on a global basis, but segmented data are provided for each region.

A sampling of global facts and forecasts:

* “Growth in the United States will average 5.1 percent compounded annually to $52 billion in 2009 from $40.5 billion in 2004.”
* “In EMEA marketing information will expand by 5 percent compounded annually to $5.7 billion from $4.5 billion in 2004.”
* “In Asia/Pac financial information will total an estimated $4.4 billion in 2009, growing by 5.5 percent compounded annually.”
* “In Latin America industry information will grow to $486 million from $407 million, averaging 3.6 percent compounded annually.”
* “In Canada business information spending will rise to $4.7 billion in 2009 from $3.8 billion in 2004, a 4.5 percent compound annual increase.”

Magazine Publishing

The magazine publishing market consists of spending by advertisers in consumer and business-to-business or trade magazines plus spending by readers to purchase magazines via subscriptions or at retail outlets.

A sampling of global facts and forecasts:

* “In the U.S. new launches in an upbeat economic environment will boost consumer magazine advertising in the near term, but growing use of cable and the Internet for image advertising will cut into long-term growth.”
* “France, the United Kingdom, and Germany had the three largest markets in EMEA in 2004, at $8.5 billion, $7.2 billion, and $6.7 billion, respectively. Together, these three countries constituted 57 percent of the region’s spending.”
* “In Asia/Pac advertising will increase at a 4.5 percent compound annual rate, from $6.1 billion in 2004 to $7.6 billion in 2009.”
* “In Latin America increased urbanization will mitigate distribution problems, while low-priced newsstand titles and increased subscriptions will boost circulation spending.”
* “In Canada circulation will continue to be adversely affected by the demise of stamp sheets and competition from U.S. titles at the newsstand, but the Internet will help stabilize subscriptions.”

Newspaper Publishing

The newspaper publishing market consists of spending by advertisers and readers on daily print newspapers. Spending by readers includes both newsstand purchases and subscriptions. Community and other weekly papers are not included, as they constitute a separate and distinct market in terms of content, advertising base, and subscriber interests. Online subscriptions are also not included. Advertising generated through online editions and online classifieds are accounted for in the Internet Advertising and Access Spending chapter.

A sampling of global facts and forecasts:

* “In the U.S. migration of classifieds to the Internet will cut into print classified growth, but rising amounts of online advertising on newspaper sites will cushion the loss.”
* “Western Europe, which accounted for 91 percent of the EMEA market in 2004, will advance at a 2.6 percent compound annual rate, with faster growth of 6.6 percent and 6.4 percent anticipated in Central and Eastern Europe and Middle East/Africa, respectively.”
* “In Asia/Pac new papers, an expanding base of advertisers, and strong economic growth will propel newspaper advertising.”
* “In Latin America circulation will continue to fall as consumers increasingly get their news from television and the Internet, but declines will moderate as fewer papers merge or close.”
* “In Canada circulation spending will continue to go down in the near term but will flatten out during 2006-08 and edge up in 2009, averaging a 0.1 percent decline during the entire five-year forecast period and falling to $502 million in 2009.”

Book Publishing

The book publishing market consists of retail spending by consumers on consumer books; spending by schools, government agencies, and students on elementary, high school, and college textbooks, including graduate textbooks; and retail spending on professional books. Spending in each category includes both print and electronic formats. In terms of electronic formats, we include actual spending on electronic books, even when e-books are distributed on an installment basis to mobile phone users, but we do not include spending on added services such as searchable archives and work flow software or on subscriptions to online services, even when e-books are bought via such subscriptions. In previous editions of this Outlook, data and information on consumer and educational and professional books have been contained in separate chapters. With the discontinuation of our coverage of training, all book publishing has been rolled into this one chapter.

A sampling of global facts and forecasts:

* “In the U.S. we project spending on books will grow at a 3.4 percent compound annual rate during the 2005-09 period, increasing from $34.2 billion in 2004 to $40.5 billion in 2009.”
* “In EMEA the expanding economy will propel professional book spending, which will be enhanced by an expanding electronic book market.”
* “Sales of e-books will total $2.2 billion in 2009 from $182 million in 2004. By 2009, e-books will constitute 8.2 percent of the total book publishing market in Asia/Pacific.”
* “Improved economic conditions in Latin America will boost a small professional book market.”
* “A stronger Canadian economy and an expanding college market will offset declines in school enrollment and boost the educational book market.”

Theme Parks and Amusement Parks

Theme parks and amusement parks are generally outdoor venues featuring rides as the primary attraction. Spending consists of admission fees, if applicable, food, souvenirs, and other purchases made at the parks. Expenditures at zoos, museums, similar venues, and hotels are not included. Some parks do not charge admission fees but charge separately for rides, which are included in per capita spending. The amount of money people spend on merchandise and food tends to relate directly to attendance and the amount of time people stay at a park.

A sampling of global facts and forecasts:

* “In the U.S. improved economic conditions and a weak U.S. dollar will spur international and domestic tourism, which will help destination parks.”
* “In EMEA the theme park industry is undergoing a process of Europeanization, with the exit of major American operators, as well as a period of consolidation.”
* “Hong Kong Disneyland, opening in late 2005, will provide a significant boost in 2006, and new parks in Japan and South Korea will fuel the market in 2008-09.”
* “In Latin America attendance will expand at an estimated 2.2 percent annual rate, from 31 million in 2004 to 34.6 million in 2009.”
* “In Canada per capita spending will rise by 1.9 percent annually, reaching $30.24 in 2009 from $27.53 in 2004.”

Casino Gaming

For the purposes of this report, we define casino gaming as games played within brick-and-mortar casinos, including land-based casinos, riverboats, dockside casinos, tribal casinos, racinos (casinos at racetracks), and limited-stakes casinos. Sports betting and Internet gaming are excluded from the definition. Internet gaming is illegal in some countries. Accordingly, the casino gaming market consists of gross gaming revenues realized on-site at casino premises. Gross gaming revenues are the amounts wagered by patrons minus the amounts returned to winning players.

A sampling of global facts and forecasts:

* “In the U.S. the proliferation of Internet gaming is sparking increased interest in table games at casinos and will contribute to casino gaming revenue growth.”
* “Western Europe is the dominant area in EMEA, accounting for 88 percent of the total. The West European market is expected to climb by 7.7 percent compounded annually from $8.6 billion in 2004 to $12.5 billion in 2009.”
* “We project casino gaming revenues in Asia/Pacific will grow at a 15.9 percent compound annual rate during the next five years to $18.5 billion in 2009 from $8.8 billion in 2004.”
* “Chile is the dominant market in Latin America, at $67 million in 2004—81 percent of the total. Brazil and Mexico, which constitute the majority of spending in most other entertainment and media segments, are not presences in this market because neither country has legal casinos.”
* “In Canada revenues grew by 5.4 percent in 2004 following a double-digit gain in 2003. Growth is projected to accelerate during 2005–06 and then moderate during 2007–09.”


We define the sports market as consisting of gate revenues for live sporting events; rights fees paid by broadcast and cable television networks and television stations to cover those events; merchandising, which includes the selling of products with team or player logos; sponsorships, which include naming rights and payments to have a product associated with a team or league, as well as, in Asia/Pacific, actual team ownership; and other packages with rights to sports events or programming. Concession revenues are not included, consistent with the definition of box office spending in the Filmed Entertainment chapter.

A sampling of global facts and forecasts:

* “Major League Baseball (MLB) and the National Football League (NFL) will propel gate revenues for major team sports, helping offset the 2005 loss of the National Hockey League.”
* “In EMEA sponsorships, merchandising, and other revenue will rise to $9 billion in 2009, a 7.9 percent compound annual gain from $6.2 billion in 2004.”
* “We project sports in Asia/Pacific will increase at a compound annual rate of 5.9 percent, to $17 billion in 2009 from $12.7 billion in 2004.”
* “The stabilizing economic environment Latin America is encouraging companies to make long-term sponsorship and merchandising deals.”
* “In Canada gate revenues will drop sharply in 2005 but will rebound in 2006 assuming a resumption of the NHL. It will not be until 2009—when the total rises to $440 million—that gate revenues return to the level achieved in 2004.”